Number of online help-wanted ads fell by 506,000 in January

Online advertised vacancies declined 506,000 to 3,355,000 in January, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted Online Data Series (HWOL) released on February 2. The January loss, combined with a similar sharp drop of 507,000 in December, results in a decline of over 1 million advertised vacancies, or 23 percent, in the last two months.

"The very sharp declines in advertised vacancies throughout the nation in the last two months are clearly making it increasingly hard for those who are unemployed to find new positions," said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board. "An expected increase in the unemployment numbers coming out at the end of this week, combined with this sharp January drop in labor demand, will widen the labor supply/demand gap. In December, the number of unemployed looking for work already exceeded the number of advertised vacancies by 7.3 million."

The sharply lower labor demand is maintaining a strong downward pressure on employment levels, and the outlook for the coming months is for continued large job losses. "If there is any bright spot," Levanon noted, "it is that there are still well over 3 million advertised vacancies."

Regional/State Highlights

·         Advertised vacancies drop in all 50 States in January

·         Only two States (North Dakota and Wyoming) continue to have favorable Supply/Demand rates (fewer unemployed persons than advertised vacancies)

In January, labor demand declined in all four regions of the nation – the Northeast, South, Midwest and the West with the most populous states in all of the regions posting declines.

In the South, North Carolina shifted to a downward trend with a January decline of 15,100. Continuing its downward trend, Texas experienced the largest decline, 36,300. Florida and Georgia continued their downward trends with January declines of 25,200 and 13,200 respectively. In spite of declines this month, the overall trend remained basically flat in Virginia (down just 6,700 in January) and Maryland (down 12,500).

Among the larger states in the Northeast region, New York again posted the largest decline in labor demand (-30,700). Massachusetts, which had been basically flat, dropped for the third consecutive month (-11,800 in January, -14,600 in December, and -10,200 in November) and like New York has posted an overall downward trend in labor demand since August 2008. Job demand in Pennsylvania dropped 20,200 while advertised vacancies in New Jersey were down 22,100 in January.

In the West, California and Arizona have shown downward trends since summer 2007 and also posted declines in January – California -34,600 and Arizona -6,000. Labor demand in Washington and Colorado began to turn down in Summer 2008 and was down 16,600 and 7,200 respectively in January.

In the Midwest region, for the second consecutive month Ohio had the largest drop (-20,200). Illinois and Missouri have both trended downward since August 2008 and in January declined 15,500 and 12,400 respectively. Continuing their downward trends, Wisconsin dropped 11,000 and Minnesota dropped 10,100. Michigan was down 13,900 in January.

Among the states with smaller populations, two states with modest declines in January were New Hampshire (-300) and Rhode Island (-1,000).

The downward trend in employer demand coupled with the monthly increases in unemployment is creating a widening gap in the supply/demand balance in most States and making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find jobs. The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. has been increasing and in December (the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available) was at 2.88, up from 2.36 in November, or close to 3 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy. The rate is expected to rise further when the January unemployment numbers are released.

The highest Supply/Demand rate is in Michigan (6.45), or over 6 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy. Other states where there are over 4 unemployed for every advertised vacancy include Mississippi (5.04), Indiana (4.78), Kentucky (4.72), North Carolina (4.31), Georgia (4.24), Florida (4.20), South Carolina (4.05), and California (4.03).

It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rates only provide a measure of relative tightness of the individual State labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies (see Occupational Highlights section).

Occupational Highlights

·         Labor demand down over 30 percent from year ago levels for a wide range of occupations

·         Job demand is hard hit in Transportation & Material Moving; Office & Administrative Support; Legal; Business & Finance; Construction; Management; and Food-related work

·         Online job demand for Healthcare Support occupations shows some strength with modest decline of 5,000

The widespread nature of the downturn in the economy is evident in the large number of occupations where online advertised vacancies in January were 30 percent or more below levels in January 2008. The list of occupations experiencing severe declines in labor demand included both high-paying occupations like Management where wages average over $46.00/hour to lower-paying occupations like Transportation & Material Moving at $14.75/hour and food service jobs averaging $9.35/hour.

In January, there were 348,500 online advertised vacancies for management positions – a decline of 175,800 or 34 percent from last January's level. Demand for office and administrative support job positions dropped 156,900 to 274,700 and were 36 percent below the January 2008 level. Computer and mathematical job ads were down 104,200 to 391,000 over the same period. Other categories showing severe declines included sales and related jobs (-97,800), business & finance (-90,300), and architecture and engineering (-56,100).

In the healthcare field, where job demand has remained positive over the last few months, the number of online advertised vacancies for healthcare practitioner and technical occupations was down 87,200 over the past year to 486,200 in January. Job demand for healthcare support workers was down slightly (-5,100) to 80,000.

Metro Area Highlights

·         50 of top 52 Metro areas post over-the-year declines in job demand in January

·         Honolulu labor demand up 1,400 over last year levels while Oklahoma City gains a modest 500 advertised vacancies

In January, 50 of the 52 metropolitan areas for which data are reported separately posted declines in the number of online advertised vacancies from last January. Honolulu with 9,900 ads was well above levels of last year (16.8 percent), and Oklahoma City, with 14,100, gained 500 ads compared to last year. The New York metro area, while continuing to post the largest number of advertised vacancies (165,700), had 96,700 fewer ads than in January 2008. Washington, D.C., an area that has exhibited strength over the last few months, was down slightly (-11,600).

The two metro areas in which the respective numbers of advertised vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed were Salt Lake City and Washington, D.C. On the other hand, metro areas in which the respective number of unemployed is substantially above the number of online advertised vacancies are Riverside, Calif., where there are over 7 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy (7.4), Detroit (5.3), Miami (3.4), Tampa (3.3), Sacramento (3.3), Los Angeles (3.2) and Atlanta (3.1). Supply/Demand rate data is for November 2008, the latest month for which unemployment data are available.