The report was issued November 3 by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
"The PMI indicates a significantly faster rate of decline in manufacturing when comparing October to September," said Ore. "It appears that manufacturing is experiencing significant demand destruction as a result of recent events, with members indicating challenges associated with the financial crisis, interruptions from the Gulf hurricane, and the lagging impact from higher oil prices. This is the lowest level for the PMI since September 1982 when it registered 38.8 percent. In this report, we see inflationary pressures dissolving as the Prices Index fell to 37 percent, the lowest since December 2001 when it registered 33.2 percent. Export orders also contracted for the first time following 70 months of growth."
PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
The two industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The industries reporting contraction in October are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Components; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
- "Credit market causing suppliers to run closer on terms." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "Appear to be bouncing along the bottom — volume is good but pricing is tough." (Primary Metals)
- "Although the volume was down compared to last month, the volume was still higher than last year at the same time." (Chemical Products)
- "Hurricane in Houston disrupted production for 10 days at our plant." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Delivery issues continue across our range of purchased commodities as suppliers trim inventory commitments." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE OCTOBER 2008 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Index |
Series Index October |
Series Index September |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of Change |
Trend* (Months) |
| PMI | 38.9 | 43.5 | -4.6 | Contracting | Faster | 3 |
| New Orders | 32.2 | 38.8 | -6.6 | Contracting | Faster | 11 |
| Production | 34.1 | 40.8 | -6.7 | Contracting | Faster | 2 |
| Employment | 34.6 | 41.8 | -7.2 | Contracting | Faster | 3 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 49.2 | 52.5 | -3.3 | Faster | From Slowing | 1 |
| Inventories | 44.3 | 43.4 | +0.9 | Contracting | Slower | 4 |
| Customers' Inventories | 55.0 | 53.5 | +1.5 | Too High | Faster | 3 |
| Prices | 37.0 | 53.5 | -16.5 | Decreasing | From Increasing | 1 |
| Backlog of Orders | 29.5 | 35.0 | -5.5 | Contracting | Faster | 6 |
| Exports | 41.0 | 52.0 | -11.0 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Imports | 41.0 | 44.0 | -3.0 | Contracting | Faster | 9 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Contracting | Faster | 3 | |||
*Number of months moving in current direction
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Caustic Soda (8); Chemicals; Copper*; Corrugated Containers (6); Steel — Bars; and Sulfuric Acid.
Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum; Aluminum Extrusions; Copper* (3); Copper Products (2); Diesel Fuel (3); Natural Gas (3); Nickel; Polypropylene; Soybean Oil; Stainless Steel; Steel (2); Steel — Cold Rolled; and Zinc (2).
Commodities in Short Supply
Caustic Soda (8) is the only commodity reported in short supply.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Reported as both up and down in price
SPECIAL QUESTIONS
A special set of questions was asked of the manufacturing respondents in October to determine possible effects from the recent turmoil in the financial markets. Of those who responded to this set of questions, 52.9 percent indicated that they (or their suppliers) have been affected by the recent financial market turmoil. Of those who have been affected, 44.6 percent indicated that they have seen a decrease in the availability of credit; 40.8 percent have seen an increase in the cost of credit; 24.7 percent have experienced difficulty in initiating or renewing a bank credit line; and 78.6 percent have reduced spending and/or hiring.
OCTOBER 2008 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
Manufacturing contracted in October as the PMI registered 38.9 percent, 4.6 percentage points lower than the 43.5 percent reported in September. This is the lowest reading since September 1982 when the PMI registered 38.8 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 41.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates contraction in both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through October (47.8 percent) corresponds to a 2.1 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for October (38.9 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 0.7 percent decrease in real GDP annually."
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
| Month | PMI | Month | PMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 38.9 | Apr 2008 | 48.6 | |
| Sep 2008 | 43.5 | Mar 2008 | 48.6 | |
| Aug 2008 | 49.9 | Feb 2008 | 48.3 | |
| Jul 2008 | 50.0 | Jan 2008 | 50.7 | |
| Jun 2008 | 50.2 | Dec 2007 | 48.4 | |
| May 2008 | 49.6 | Nov 2007 | 50.0 | |
| Average for 12 months — 48.1 High — 50.7 Low — 38.9 | ||||
New Orders
ISM's New Orders Index registered 32.2 percent in October, 6.6 percentage points lower than the 38.8 percent registered in September. This is the lowest reading for this index since June 1980 when the index was at 24.2 percent. A New Orders Index above 51.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
Apparel, Leather & Allied Products is the only industry reporting increased new orders during October. The industries failing to grow in October are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
| New Orders |
% Better |
% Same |
% Worse |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 13 | 35 | 52 | -39 | 32.2 |
| Sep 2008 | 18 | 43 | 39 | -21 | 38.8 |
| Aug 2008 | 23 | 48 | 29 | -6 | 48.3 |
| Jul 2008 | 18 | 54 | 28 | -10 | 45.0 |
Production
ISM's Production Index decreased to 34.1 percent in October, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the 40.8 percent reported in September. An index above 49.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.
Of the industries reporting in October, two registered growth: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The industries failing to grow in October are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Production |
% Better |
% Same |
% Worse |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 11 | 43 | 46 | -35 | 34.1 |
| Sep 2008 | 20 | 47 | 33 | -13 | 40.8 |
| Aug 2008 | 21 | 61 | 18 | +3 | 52.1 |
| Jul 2008 | 21 | 62 | 17 | +4 | 52.9 |
Employment
ISM's Employment Index registered 34.6 percent in October, which is a decrease of 7.2 percentage points when compared to the 41.8 percent reported in September. This is the lowest reading for the Employment Index since March 1991 when the index registered 33.6 percent. An Employment Index above 49.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
The only industry reporting growth in employment during October is Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. The industries that reported decreases in employment during October are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
Employment |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 7 | 53 | 40 | -33 | 34.6 |
| Sep 2008 | 8 | 65 | 27 | -19 | 41.8 |
| Aug 2008 | 17 | 63 | 20 | -3 | 49.7 |
| Jul 2008 | 19 | 65 | 16 | +3 | 51.9 |
Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations moved from slower to faster in October as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49.2 percent, which is 3.3 percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent registered in September. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The six industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in October are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The industries reporting faster deliveries in October are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.
| Supplier Deliveries |
% Slower |
% Same |
% Faster |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 9 | 80 | 11 | -2 | 49.2 |
| Sep 2008 | 11 | 84 | 5 | +6 | 52.5 |
| Aug 2008 | 9 | 84 | 7 | +2 | 50.3 |
| Jul 2008 | 15 | 82 | 3 | +12 | 55.1 |
Inventories
Manufacturers' inventories contracted in October as the Inventories Index registered 44.3 percent, which is 0.9 percentage point higher than the 43.4 percent reported in September. An Inventories Index greater than 42.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
The six industries reporting higher inventories in October are: Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Paper Products. The industries that reported decreases in October are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather& Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
Inventories |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 16 | 55 | 29 | -13 | 44.3 |
| Sep 2008 | 13 | 60 | 27 | -14 | 43.4 |
| Aug 2008 | 18 | 65 | 17 | +1 | 49.3 |
| Jul 2008 | 12 | 64 | 24 | -12 | 45.0 |
Customers' Inventories*
The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 55 percent in October, an increase of 1.5 percentage points when compared to September's reading of 53.5 percent. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too high at this time.
Ten industries reported higher customers' inventories during October: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The industries that reported lower customers' inventories during October are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.
| Customers' Inventories |
% Reporting |
%Too High |
%About Right |
%Too Low |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 77 | 28 | 54 | 18 | +10 | 55.0 |
| Sep 2008 | 77 | 23 | 61 | 16 | +7 | 53.5 |
| Aug 2008 | 66 | 22 | 65 | 13 | +9 | 54.5 |
| Jul 2008 | 74 | 17 | 60 | 23 | -6 | 47.0 |
Prices*
The ISM Prices Index registered 37 percent in October compared to 53.5 percent in September, indicating manufacturers are paying lower prices on average when compared to September. This is the lowest reading for the index since December 2001 when it registered 33.2 percent. While 14 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 40 percent reported paying lower prices, 46 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as the preceding month. A Prices Index above 47.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.
In October, six industries reported paying higher prices: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The industries that reported paying lower prices during October are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.
Prices |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 14 | 46 | 40 | -26 | 37.0 |
| Sep 2008 | 30 | 47 | 23 | +7 | 53.5 |
| Aug 2008 | 60 | 34 | 6 | +54 | 77.0 |
| Jul 2008 | 80 | 17 | 3 | +77 | 88.5 |
Backlog of Orders*
ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 29.5 percent in October, 5.5 percentage points lower than the 35 percent reported in September. Of the 87 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 9 percent reported greater backlogs, 50 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 41 percent reported no change from September.
The only industry reporting an increase in order backlogs in October is Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. The industries that reported decreases in order backlogs during October are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals.
| Backlog of Orders |
% Reporting |
% Greater |
% Same |
% Less |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 87 | 9 | 41 | 50 | -41 | 29.5 |
| Sep 2008 | 83 | 10 | 50 | 40 | -30 | 35.0 |
| Aug 2008 | 87 | 15 | 57 | 28 | -13 | 43.5 |
| Jul 2008 | 85 | 15 | 56 | 29 | -14 | 43.0 |
New Export Orders*
ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 41 percent in October, a decrease of 11 percentage points when compared to September's index of 52 percent. This month's reading of 41 percent ends 70 consecutive months of growth in the New Export Orders Index.
The two industries reporting growth in new export orders in October are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Chemical Products. The industries that reported decreases in new export orders in October are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.
| New Export Orders |
% Reporting |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 77 | 7 | 68 | 25 | -18 | 41.0 |
| Sep 2008 | 77 | 16 | 72 | 12 | +4 | 52.0 |
| Aug 2008 | 79 | 23 | 68 | 9 | +14 | 57.0 |
| Jul 2008 | 75 | 17 | 74 | 9 | +8 | 54.0 |
Imports*
Imports of materials by manufacturers contracted during October as the Imports Index registered 41 percent, 3 percentage points lower than the 44 percent reported in September. This is the ninth consecutive month of contraction in imports.
The only industry reporting growth in import activity for October is Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. The industries that reported decreases in imports during October are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Imports |
% Reporting |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | 79 | 8 | 66 | 26 | -18 | 41.0 |
| Sep 2008 | 81 | 5 | 78 | 17 | -12 | 44.0 |
| Aug 2008 | 82 | 9 | 79 | 12 | -3 | 48.5 |
| Jul 2008 | 80 | 8 | 77 | 15 | -7 | 46.5 |
* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased 1 day to 114 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased 3 days to 48 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased 3 days to 25 days.
| Percent Reporting | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital Expenditures |
Hand- to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
| Oct 2008 | 23 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 24 | 12 | 114 |
| Sep 2008 | 28 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 27 | 11 | 113 |
| Aug 2008 | 25 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 24 | 13 | 117 |
| Jul 2008 | 27 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 27 | 12 | 117 |
Production Materials |
Hand- to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
| Oct 2008 | 27 | 37 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 48 |
| Sep 2008 | 26 | 39 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 51 |
| Aug 2008 | 23 | 35 | 27 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 55 |
| Jul 2008 | 21 | 42 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 48 |
MRO Supplies |
Hand- to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
| Oct 2008 | 52 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Sep 2008 | 53 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| Aug 2008 | 53 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| Jul 2008 | 56 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
About this Report
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 41.1 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 41.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 41.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management. ISM, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. Its mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.
The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, featuring the November 2008 data, will be released on December 1, 2008.
