The Conference Board announced April 17 that its U.S. leading economic index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in March.
Leading indicators: Five of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index increased in March. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were real money supply, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), interest rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), building permits, stock prices, and index of consumer expectations. Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods held steady in March.
The leading index now stands at 102 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in February and decreased 0.4 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the leading index decreased 1.6 percent, with three out of 10 components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 30 percent).
Coincident indicators: Three of the four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales. The negative contributor was employees on non-agricultural payrolls.
The coincident index now stands at 107.1 (2004=100). This index decreased 0.2 percent in February and remained unchanged in January. During the six-month period through March, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent.
Lagging indicators: The lagging index stands at 111.6 (2004=100) in March, with five of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in CPI for services, change in labor cost per unit of output, commercial and industrial loans outstanding, and the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income. The negative contributor was the average prime rate charged by banks. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales held steady in March. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in February and increased 0.1 percent in January.