Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.K. increases again

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom increased by 0.8 percent in January to 100.0 (2004 = 100), following gains of 0.4 percent in December and 1.0 percent in November, it was announced on March 16. Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index.

Jean-Claude Manini, Conference Board senior economist for Europe, said: "The LEI for the United Kingdom has picked up in January with widespread gains among its components. Nonetheless, current economic conditions, as reflected in the coincident indicators, still show few signs of improvement. As a result, the recovery is likely to be sluggish going forward, just as in the Euro Area."

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased for a 10th consecutive month in January after a long period of decline. At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in both January and December, after gaining 0.1 percent in November. The index now stands at 102.7 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.K. include:

• Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
• Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
• Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
• FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
• Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
• Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
• Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)