Boeing, China's leading provider of passenger airplanes, forecasts that China will require 4,330 new commercial airplanes valued at $480 billion over the next 20 years, with the bulk of new deliveries expected to be for fuel-efficient, single-aisle airplanes. Over the forecast period, China will triple in airplane fleet size, making it the largest airplane market outside of the United States.
"China is one of the world's fastest growing and dynamic aviation markets, driven by the urbanization of China, the growth of its economy and ever-increasing personal wealth," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, who released Boeing's 2010 China market outlook today in Beijing. "We expect domestic passenger traffic for China to grow at a rate of 7.9 percent on average."
Boeing forecasts that 71 percent of China's demand will be for single-aisle airplanes, with total deliveries reaching 3,090.
Boeing continues to make improvements to the 737 in terms of fuel efficiency, passenger experience and environmental performance, Tinseth said. The Next-Generation 737-900ER (extended range) is the newest addition to Boeing's single-aisle family of airplanes.
Intermediate twin-aisles such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777 will see approximately 890 airplane deliveries. When combined, the single-aisle and intermediate twin-aisle market will make up 92 percent of China's total delivery dollars. Demand also will include a limited number of large airplanes (747-size and larger) to connect China with other major world destinations. The market forecast calls for about 70 airplanes in that category.
With China's cargo markets leading the global industry, Chinese air carriers will add about 330 freighter airplanes by 2029. China's total fleet of freighter airplanes will more than triple in size.
Tinseth also underscored the long-standing partnership between Boeing and Chinese partners.
"Boeing's equity investment in China is considerable, and the aviation goods and services we buy from China is significantly greater than other aviation companies," Tinseth said. "In the coming years, Boeing purchases are expected to exceed $3 billion."
Tinseth noted that there are more than 5,700 Boeing airplanes flying throughout the world with parts and assemblies built by China. China has a role on all of the Boeing commercial airplane models – 737, 747, 767, 777, and the newest and most innovative airplane, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of $3.6 trillion for 30,900 new commercial airplanes to be delivered during the next 20 years. The complete forecast is available on the Boeing website at www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html.